Search Results for: Arms For Uncertainty

Arms for Uncertainty

Arms for Uncertainty

Author: Stephen J. Cimbala

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781317178514

Category: Political Science

Page: 244

View: 150

Nuclear weapons are here to stay. They have survived into the twenty-first century as instruments of influence for the US, Russia, and other major military powers. But, unlike the Cold War era, future nuclear forces will be developed and deployed within a digital-driven world of enhanced conventional weapons. As such, established nuclear powers will have smaller numbers of nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence working in parallel with smarter conventional weapons and elite military personnel. The challenge is to agree proportional reductions in nuclear inventories or abstinence requiring an effective nonproliferation regime to contain aspiring or threshold nuclear weapons states. This is the most comprehensive view of nuclear weapons policy and strategy currently available. The author’s division of the nuclear issue into the three ages is a never seen before analytical construct. With President Obama reelected, the reduction and even elimination of nuclear weapons will now rise to the top of the agenda once more. Moreover, given the likelihood of reductions in US defense spending, the subject of the triad, which is covered in Chapter One, will no doubt be an important subject of debate, as will the issue of missile defense, covered in Chapter 10. This book provides an excellent analysis of the spread of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East and the potential dangers of a North Korean or Iranian breakout, subjects that dominate current policy debates.

Arms for Uncertainty

Arms for Uncertainty

Author: Stephen J. Cimbala

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781317178507

Category: Political Science

Page: 244

View: 566

Nuclear weapons are here to stay. They have survived into the twenty-first century as instruments of influence for the US, Russia, and other major military powers. But, unlike the Cold War era, future nuclear forces will be developed and deployed within a digital-driven world of enhanced conventional weapons. As such, established nuclear powers will have smaller numbers of nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence working in parallel with smarter conventional weapons and elite military personnel. The challenge is to agree proportional reductions in nuclear inventories or abstinence requiring an effective nonproliferation regime to contain aspiring or threshold nuclear weapons states. This is the most comprehensive view of nuclear weapons policy and strategy currently available. The author’s division of the nuclear issue into the three ages is a never seen before analytical construct. With President Obama reelected, the reduction and even elimination of nuclear weapons will now rise to the top of the agenda once more. Moreover, given the likelihood of reductions in US defense spending, the subject of the triad, which is covered in Chapter One, will no doubt be an important subject of debate, as will the issue of missile defense, covered in Chapter 10. This book provides an excellent analysis of the spread of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East and the potential dangers of a North Korean or Iranian breakout, subjects that dominate current policy debates.

The Politics of Uncertainty

The Politics of Uncertainty

Author: Peter Marris

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781134789078

Category: Psychology

Page: 208

View: 466

In The Politics of Uncertainty Peter Marris examines one of the most crucial and least studied aspects of social relationships: how we manage uncertainty, from the child's struggle for secure attachment to the competitive strategies of multinational corporations. Using a powerful synthesis of social and psychological theory, he shows how strategies of competition interact with the individual's sense of personal agency to place the heaviest burden of uncertainty on those with the fewest social and economic resources. He argues that these strategies maximize uncertainty for everyone by undermining the reciprocity essential to successful economic and social relationships. At a time when global economic reorganisation is undermining security of employment, The Politics of Uncertainty makes a convincing case for strategies of co-operation at both personal and political levels to ensure our economic and social survival in the twenty-first century.

U.S. Security in an Uncertain Era

U.S. Security in an Uncertain Era

Author: Brad Roberts

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262680807

Category: Political Science

Page: 418

View: 791

essays collected from issues of the Washington Quarterly focus on important questions posed by the end of the Cold War, a changed Soviet Union, changing alliances, regional instabilities, and new security challenges These essays collected from recent issues of the Washington Quarterly focus on important questions posed by the end of the Cold War, a changed Soviet Union, changing alliances, regional instabilities, and new security challenges. The twenty-eight chapters are divided into sections that cover U.S. security in the 1990s, peacetime defense policy, security in Europe, international security, and proliferation and arms control. Brad Roberts is a Research Fellow in International Security Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Risk and Uncertainty

Risk and Uncertainty

Author: Olivier Urbain

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781351492881

Category: Political Science

Page: 204

View: 767

Conflict transformation requires, at minimum, a capacity to listen and respond constructively to those who are being hurt intentionally or unintentionally by others. This compendium attempts to understand the ways in which borders and boundaries are manifestations of less visible dynamics in individual or collective human consciousness.Nur Yalman asks how certain theories, such as the Huntington thesis, become deadly in their consequences. Omar Moufakkir and Ian Kelly analyze Dutch Moroccan relations. Sverre Lodgaard outlines the interrelationship between geo-politics, emerging concepts of world order, and nuclear weapon policies. Anthony Marsella critically analyses the Fukushima nuclear disaster.The lessons drawn in this volume underline the importance of communication, honesty, and a concerned government responsive to the needs of citizens in crisis. Each of these contributions is grappling with different ways in which words, theories, ideologies, and perspectives can hurt or heal, divide or unite, reconcile or destroy.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

Author: David Heckerman

Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann

ISBN: 9781483214511

Category: Computers

Page: 552

View: 717

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence contains the proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence held at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, 1993. The papers focus on methods of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty as applied to problems in artificial intelligence (AI) and cover topics ranging from knowledge acquisition and automated model construction to learning, planning, temporal reasoning, and machine vision. Comprised of 66 chapters, this book begins with a discussion on causality in Bayesian belief networks before turning to a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic and forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory. Subsequent chapters explore trade-offs in constructing and evaluating temporal influence diagrams; normative engineering risk management systems; additive belief-network models; and sensitivity analysis for probability assessments in Bayesian networks. Automated model construction and learning as well as algorithms for inference and decision making are also considered. This monograph will be of interest to both students and practitioners in the fields of AI and computer science.

Modeling Uncertainty

Modeling Uncertainty

Author: Moshe Dror

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9780306481024

Category: Mathematics

Page: 770

View: 509

Modeling Uncertainty: An Examination of Stochastic Theory, Methods, and Applications, is a volume undertaken by the friends and colleagues of Sid Yakowitz in his honor. Fifty internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modeling uncertainty to this volume. Each of these papers was carefully reviewed and in the majority of cases the original submission was revised before being accepted for publication in the book. The papers cover a great variety of topics in probability, statistics, economics, stochastic optimization, control theory, regression analysis, simulation, stochastic programming, Markov decision process, application in the HIV context, and others. There are papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications. A number of papers survey the work in a particular area and in a few papers the authors present their personal view of a topic. It is a book with a considerable number of expository articles, which are accessible to a nonexpert - a graduate student in mathematics, statistics, engineering, and economics departments, or just anyone with some mathematical background who is interested in a preliminary exposition of a particular topic. Many of the papers present the state of the art of a specific area or represent original contributions which advance the present state of knowledge. In sum, it is a book of considerable interest to a broad range of academic researchers and students of stochastic systems.

In Uncertain Times

In Uncertain Times

Author: Melvyn P. Leffler

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801461294

Category: Political Science

Page: 256

View: 311

In Uncertain Times considers how policymakers react to dramatic developments on the world stage. Few expected the Berlin Wall to come down in November 1989; no one anticipated the devastating attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in September 2001. American foreign policy had to adjust quickly to an international arena that was completely transformed. Melvyn P. Leffler and Jeffrey W. Legro have assembled an illustrious roster of officials from the George H. W. Bush, Clinton, and George W. Bush administrations—Robert B. Zoellick, Paul Wolfowitz, Eric S. Edelman, Walter B. Slocombe, and Philip Zelikow. These policymakers describe how they went about making strategy for a world fraught with possibility and peril. They offer provocative reinterpretations of the economic strategy advanced by the George H. W. Bush administration, the bureaucratic clashes over policy toward the breakup of the USSR, the creation of the Defense Policy Guidance of 1992, the expansion of NATO, the writing of the National Security Strategy Statement of 2002, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. A group of eminent scholars address these same topics. Bruce Cumings, John Mueller, Mary Elise Sarotte, Odd Arne Westad, and William C. Wohlforth probe the unstated assumptions, the cultural values, and the psychological makeup of the policymakers. They examine whether opportunities were seized and whether threats were magnified and distorted. They assess whether academicians and independent experts would have done a better job than the policymakers did. Together, policymakers and scholars impel us to rethink how our world has changed and how policy can be improved in the future.

Mechanical Engineering in Uncertainties From Classical Approaches to Some Recent Developments

Mechanical Engineering in Uncertainties From Classical Approaches to Some Recent Developments

Author:

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781789450101

Category: Science

Page: 352

View: 668

Considering the uncertainties in mechanical engineering in order to improve the performance of future products or systems is becoming a competitive advantage, sometimes even a necessity, when seeking to guarantee an increasingly high safety requirement. Mechanical Engineering in Uncertainties deals with modeling, quantification and propagation of uncertainties. It also examines how to take into account uncertainties through reliability analyses and optimization under uncertainty. The spectrum of the methods presented ranges from classical approaches to more recent developments and advanced methods. The methodologies are illustrated by concrete examples in various fields of mechanics (civil engineering, mechanical engineering and fluid mechanics). This book is intended for both (young) researchers and engineers interested in the treatment of uncertainties in mechanical engineering.